National Rugby League Round 21 Betting Picks 2025
Round 21 of the National Rugby League begins on Thursday with a full slate of matches. With several tightly contested battles at the top of the ladder, each point from here on out will become that much more important. Only four points separate the top four teams. Four points is also the difference between the bottom seven teams.
Once again this week, we’ll focus on four matches of interest to place your bets. These National Rugby League Round 21 Betting Picks 2025 cover everything from picks against the spread, to point totals and even a player prop.
National Rugby League Round 21 Betting Picks 2025
Melbourne Storm -5.5 Over Sydney Roosters (+105 via Hard Rock)
The Melbourne Storm slipped a spot to third place on the ladder after a tough 18-16 loss to the Manly Sea Eagles last week. The loss snapped a six-match winning streak spanning the last two months. Even still, Melbourne is 12-5 on the season and remains one of the dominant teams in the league. The Storm are tied for the league lead in points (533) and own the best point differential in the league (218).
It’s a bird… It’s a plane… It’s Xavier Coates! 🦸♂️ pic.twitter.com/o1XYa1kutT
— NRL (@NRL) July 19, 2025
Sydney sits mid-ladder with a record of 8-9 as the season winds down. To make matters worse, they own a 4-5 record at home this year The Roosters are coming off of a 31-18 loss to the 8th place Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks.
The Storm have beaten the Roosters by at least six points in each of their last two contests. In fact, Melbourne has won against Sydney by a combined 46 points in those matches. This line is as low as 3.5 on ESPN BET with the Storm -105 to cover. You can also find it at 4.5 on FanDuel with Melbourne -104 on their end.
North Queensland Cowboys vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Over 48.5 (+120 via ESPN BET)
Offense has not been a strong suit for either of these teams this season. The Cowboys are scoring an average of 20 points this year. The Dragons have a slight edge scoring an average of 21 points through their first 17 matches. Although defensively, North Queensland is allowing 29 points per match while St. George Illawarra is surrendering 25 points per outing.
The Cowboys have surpassed this combined total in 11 matches. They have exceeded this mark in three of their last five outings. St George Illawarra has participated in 10 matches this year that have ended with 49 or more points.
Cowboys shift it ⬅️ to Taulagi 🤝 pic.twitter.com/Vt6qvEn060
— NRL (@NRL) July 17, 2025
Each of the last two meetings between these teams have ended with at least 49 points on the board. In March of 2024, they combined for 70 points. The year before that, they racked up 64 points between them.
Gold Coast Titans vs. New Zealand Warriors: Phillip Sami Anytime Tryscorer (+110 via BetMGM)
It has been a rough season for the Titans. Gold Coast finds themselves at the bottom of the ladder with a 4-13 record. They are winless in their last four matches and have a -157 point differential heading into this round. Points have been hard to come by as they have the fourth lowest output in the league (346).
However, Phillips Sami has done all he can for his team this year scoring 10 tries this year. He leads the team and is the only Titans player inside of the top 20 in the league in tries this season. The winger has scored a try in two of his last three matches.
The Titans have scored 16 tries in their last two outings against the Warriors. In June of 2024, they exploded for 11 tries against New Zealand.
Cronulla Sharks vs. Sydney Rabbitohs Over 8.5 Tries (+100 via DraftKings)
The Sharks enter this round tied for fourth in points scored this season. Cronulla has scored at least five tries in three of their last five matches. They have combined with their opponent to score at least nine tries in seven of their matches this year.
An incredible run from Blayke Brailey! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/QpFRdsf6ak
— NRL (@NRL) July 18, 2025
The Rabbitohs have surrendered the third-most points on the ladder this season. The Bunnies have combined for at least 9 tries in three of their last five matches.
These teams met last in Round 3 back in March. They scored seven tries total that day.
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