Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Picks

The 1st Saturday in May means only one thing, the Run for the Roses! The 151st renewal of the Greatest 2 Minutes in Sport takes place at Churchill Downs. Lets take a look at the runners and riders and see if we can find a winner.

Handicapping the Derby really hinges on your interpretation of how the pace will set up. If you think the front runners can set the fractions and hold on, those are the horses you’re picking from. If you think that they’ll cut each others throats on the front end, look at the closers.

With such a large field, luck in running is paramount. It’s often tempting to take something that’s going to be on the pace. However, my feeling this year is that there’s so much pace, that the race will set-up for those determined to come fast and late. I’m prepared to fade the hot favourite Journalism. Admittedly, it’s hard to pick holes in his form, but I don’t think he beat much last time and also seemed to find trouble. If he does that again he won’t get away with it.

Kentucky Derby Information
When: Saturday, May 3rd, 6:57 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: NBC

Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Picks

3 – Final Gambit 16/1

This horse has been attracting more international money than it has from US bettors (I’m a Brit, I know about this stuff). Final Gambit is a big flashy grey trained by Brad Cox, and has a real progressive profile. He came from the clouds to win the Jeff Ruby stakes in really eyecatching fashion. He won’t be stopping near the wire, and I think he might just get there in time.

18 – Sovereignty – 6/1

This horse ticks a lot of boxes and actually is quite easy to handicap. The Bill Mott inmate is consistent and has form at this course. He was ridden incredibly confidently last time and looks fine in and around other horses which is important in the hustle and bustle of a Derby. Sovereignty can tack across from stall 18 and come home with a rattle.

9 – Burnham Square – 12/1

Burnham Square took an age to get going when winning the Blue Grass Stakes. He’ll need to be slightly more organised here to come with such a withering late run. He has an extra furlong on his side this time which I think will help and he can run into the places.

16 – Coal Battle – 25/1

This horse doesn’t quite fit into the profile of the others that I’ve selected, in that he should be much closer to the break-neck pace at the front end. Coal Battle had won 4 in a row and has since ran well in the Arkansas Derby. A wide draw might just force him to sit in behind the pace, and he could get first run on those looking to close, especially if there’s traffic problems.